Since the beginning of this year, the prices of non-ferrous metals such as nickel and aluminum have fluctuated sharply, and the expectation of supply contraction has made the market more optimistic about the price trend of some non-ferrous varieties. Industry insiders expect that under the multiple influences of Indonesia's export ban, market destocking and downstream demand growth, some non-ferrous metal varieties may gradually appear supply and demand gap.
Significant
price fluctuations In the
first half of this year, nickel prices soared, and aluminum prices have rebounded rapidly since then. The contraction in supply has been one of the reasons driving the price of these metals up.
According to the data, the quotations of base metals such as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc on June 17 increased from the previous day. Among them, the average price of aluminum is 13,270 yuan/ton, the average price of zinc is 15,370 yuan/ton, and the average price of nickel is 128,750 yuan/ton. Judging from the quotations of some domestic enterprises in early June, the price of A00 aluminum remained at the level of 13,320-13,700 yuan/ton, the price of zinc ingots was about 15,210-15,500 yuan/ton, the price of 1# tin was about 143,000-145,000 yuan/ton, and the price of 1# nickel reached 130,000-132,000 yuan/ton. Among them, nickel prices have risen by more than 40% since the beginning of the year.
At the beginning of this year, Indonesia imposed an export ban on domestic raw ore exports. As Indonesia has been a major global supplier of bauxite, nickel and other minerals, the ban has also raised expectations for higher prices.
It is understood that Indonesia's aluminum and nickel ore exports account for 16% and 25% of the global supply respectively. Minsheng Securities believes that due to the declining domestic bauxite grade, the low-cost bauxite hoarded at the port is about to be exhausted. Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports since the beginning of the year will spur price increases. With the fermentation of the export ban and the market's optimism about the application prospects of aluminum bodies, many institutions expect that the price of electrolytic aluminum will rebound in the second half of the year and show a year-on-year upward trend.
In addition to nickel and aluminum, the market also expects a zinc supply shortage to emerge in the future. The International Lead and Zinc Organization expects shortages to reach 175,000 tonnes this year. Relevant data also show that since 2014, zinc inventories have continued to decline, and the current global inventory has fallen below 1 million tons. At the same time, the global demand for zinc is still growing rapidly, and there may be a real shortage of zinc in the future market. Essence Securities believes that some large-scale zinc mines will be closed in the future, and the zinc supply gap will gradually expand, but it has not yet formed a large impact in the short term.
Although some non-ferrous varieties are facing a supply gap, the pace of domestic energy conservation and emission reduction and elimination of backwardness has not slowed down.
Recently, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology issued the "Shanghai Industrial Structure Adjustment Negative List and Energy Efficiency Guidelines (2014 Edition)", which is also the first domestic industrial structure adjustment field in accordance with the concept of negative list to formulate a guidance catalog, involving 12 industries such as chemicals, steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, machinery, 386 restricted and eliminated production processes, equipment, etc.
A few days ago, the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other departments also jointly issued a document to increase the implementation of the differential electricity price policy, use price means to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and promote the adjustment of industrial structure. It is required to implement a differential electricity price policy for the electricity used by eliminated and restricted production equipment (production lines and processes) in the steel, cement, ferroalloy, calcium carbide, caustic soda, yellow phosphorus and zinc smelting industries, and the differential electricity price increase standard shall not be less than 0.4 yuan per kilowatt hour for the eliminated category and 0.1 yuan for the restricted category.
Industry insiders said that compared with the shortage in the international market, many non-ferrous varieties are still facing the risk of overcapacity in China, and even the phenomenon that the new production capacity is higher than the eliminated production capacity. In the future, the pace of elimination and backwardness of some varieties of non-ferrous metals in China is still accelerating, and the production and operation of related enterprises will also be affected and adjusted.